[Porsche-O-Phile]

We’re probably around 5%-10% of the population having a level of immunity. That’s taken on the order of three months. It’s hard to project how long the next 10% might take, and the next. We have competing factors - the “natural” exponential rate of spread but also aggressive distancing measures deliberately designed to offset it. If I had to guess I’d say that adds up to the same level of pain and discomfort as we have currently for several more months, unless we change our strategy and make it all about getting herd immunity faster (in which case the price is more death in the short term).

My guess is that there is a lot of political incentive (and this is driving policy decisions for quite a few locations) to drag it out until oh, November or so at least, able to justify it as “what was necessary for flattening the curve”.