Moderna teases partial data from 45 patient phase 1 of MRNA1273 vaccine candidate. 25 and 100 um single dose arms showed dose-dependent antibodies at levels equal/greater than in recovered patients. 1 Grade 3 adverse effects (redness at injection site). High dose 250 um arm had 3 Gr 3 AEs, that arm is discontinued. A new 50 um arm established. This very small trial was in 18-55 y/o patients. 55-70 y/o and 70+ y/o trials underway. 600 patient phase 2 starting "soon", company claims Phase 3 potentially starting July. Will take "several quarters" to get to 1 BN dose/yr manufacturing rate at 50 um dose.
I think there will be multiple vaccine candidates that show antibody response - Sinovac and Oxford did in monkeys, now Moderna in (a few) humans. They will all move into phase 3 trials as fast as they can, probably 4-5 phase 3 trials will have data in 4Q.
Unclear to me how robust the data will be: if 1% of population contracts Covid-19 each month (most parts of US are much lower now, NY/NJ were higher at peak, potentially more states could get there by late summer/fall), how large a trial do you need to get efficacy and safety data strong enough to start vaccinating 10s or 100s of millions? Typical vaccine phase 3 trial is 20-40K persons.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3551877/