[jyl]

Various issues w/ the data, both under-reporting and over-reporting. The biggest issue is that roughly half of infected persons are asymptomatic, some other portion of infected persons have symptoms mild enough that they don't seek testing , and some additional portion of persons don't have access to testing for various reasons. Almost all those cases go un-reported. As a result, overall Covid infections are seriously under-reported.

This matters because infected persons who are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms will still be shedding virus and thus infecting other persons. That's the thing about this disease, it creates hundreds of thousands of "Typhoid Marys".

For a while I was studying the data for my state (Oregon) very closely, and my estimate was that only 1 in 10 cases were reported. Turned out that was also the estimate of the state health dept. The implication was that back then, when Oregon was reporting 100 new cases/day, we were actually having 1,000 new/ infections/day. Now we are reporting 300-400 new cases/day, I suspect the under-reporting has gone down a little, but likely we are still actually having at least 2,000-3,000 new infections/day.

Don't know what the situation is in other states but I suspect actual infections are significantly under-reported in all states.

Now there is an increasing data problem, which is that various levels of government are trying to withhold, suppress, and minimize the data. Even in Oregon we've seen this. It seems that whether you're in a blue or red state, one of the first instincts of top government officials is to lie and that instinct seems to increase the farther the official is from actually taking care of people on the street and in the hospital. Sorry for the PARF-ish sentiment but I'm pretty f*cking mad about it.