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jyl jyl is online now
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Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Nor California & Pac NW
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Originally Posted by ckissick View Post
Trump says we should open schools because children are at low risk of death. The reporter on MSNBC discussed how horrible this idea was and that many children will die if we open schools. So I looked up how many children died in Sweden. The answer: 1 in the 0-19 age group. (I think the chart on the link is supposed to say "19 years and younger", not "9 years and younger".)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/
Children get infected by SARS2 at a similar rate as adults. While they almost always have mild or asymptomatic disease, they transmit the virus to adults quite effectively.

Contact tracing studies (Italy, S Korea) showed that older children (age 10-18) were the most effective viral spreaders. Meaning the % of their contacts who got infected was higher than the % for other age groups.

The data was inconclusive for younger children (age 0-19), with one study suggesting they were viral spreaders and the other suggesting otherwise; in both studies the number of younger children was tiny (a handful) which makes the results unreliable.

So the issue with opening schools is more about parents, teachers, staff, and the community. The risk to the children themselves is very low, though it does rise as you get into the higher grades/high school.

If a school district sends kids back to in-person school when the community still has high infection rates, there will quickly be kids infected, then the class and teacher will have to be quarantined for X days, or potentially the whole school closed down for X days. Those quarantines and closures will keep happening all school year. They will also have higher infection rates in the community, starting with parents and staff.

In theory, you could reopen schools with strict social distancing and extensive testing, as was done in some Asian countries - even there, schools have sometimes had to re-close. The US can't or won't do that. Exhibit A: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mollyhensleyclancy/georgia-school-reopening-photo-paulding-county
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Last edited by jyl; 08-06-2020 at 08:43 AM..
Old 08-06-2020, 08:39 AM
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