[Sooner or later]

Without 100 years of medical advances it would be similar. They use worst case NY to make their case. No other area has approached those levels since the first month of spread.

From the article that you didn't mention.

The study’s authors noted that their research had limitations. The researchers said it’s unknown how many Covid-19 deaths have been prevented since the outbreak began because of modern improvements in health care that weren’t available a century ago, such as supplemental oxygen and ventilators.