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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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Where is the Inflation going to come from when people don't have money to pay the rent nor buy food. So far all the FED has been able to accomplish with it's massive decade long printing extravaganza is to keep prices constant. Many of the areas where you do see price inflation have been due to bottlenecks in the supply chain which has created a shortage. Or in the case of Equities the Demand for Equities because of this wave of liquidity is greater than the supply of Equities. This Demand is due to the FEDs stated policy of activism which make Equities have a lessor risk and the lack of an adequate ROI in other traditional investment vehicles.
Problem is that with so many people not being able to pay rent nor buy food they are unable to buy stuff. Which then means that the factories can not sell the amount of goods that they produce. The factories will then be forced to cut back on production which means they need fewer workers resulting in more unemployed people who are unable to consume. This then is a death spiral for the economy.
Enter the FED/Central Banks and Governments which then pump liquidity into the sytem to artificially keep the Global economy of Scale afloat and the lights on. Over time the infusion of a given amount of liquidity loses it's effectiveness in achieving a result as the intrinsic value of the currency has been debased, diluted. A that point more and more liquidity has to be added to achieve the same result. Till the point where the FED may add a Trillion in liquidity in one day and see that it has no effect on the system. The system then falls into free fall.
Some people like to blame the FED for the problem, due to their provision of massive liquidity into the system which then artificially keeps corporations which are not viable in business. While the consequences of this policy are ultimately undesirable, the choice is stark without that infusion of liquidity the system COLLAPSES. Which would then create a howl of misery unparalleled in history as chaos would reign . There is no restart button. Pain is going to be felt by everyone everywhere.
In the end do you want to thrown into abject poverty and starvation as the economy melts down if yo do nothing. The alternative was, to step in and juice the sytem which at first was thought, if given the chance could be righted? The inflection point came in 2018 where the FED thought the economy was sound enough to normalize the balance sheet and interest rates. The FED and Equity markets soon found out that without the FED support the economy was no longer viable without that FED supportive activism. This then set off another chain of events which led to the September 17, 2019 wobble where the FED had to step in , in what turned out to be a continuous action to support the Banks which are the heart of the economy (it facilitates cash flow throughout the economic system). The economic system was then shaky enough to be primed and ready for the CV meltdown. The problem was that the system has no resiliency because there is nothing left of value in the system to draw down on when times grew lean. Everything is leverage to the hilt and the American people and system were/are living hand to mouth with nothing to spare. Enter another massive round of liquidity to keep the system afloat, at least for now.
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"Some Observer"
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