Quote:
Originally Posted by brainz01
Somebody's got to keep the people scared, right?
That article is pathetic.
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+1
Flattening the curve is great and all, but a flattened epi curve is also an elongated curve in most cases. On an extremely steep curve (no mitigating measures), more die at the beginning of the outbreak, but it's over quicker. On an extremely flattened curve (extreme mitigating measures) fewer die up front, but it persists much, much longer. There is a theoretical sweet spot between the two, but that is usually only realized in hindsight, based on several factors and timelines for effective therapeutics, vaccines, hospital capacities, population make-up/demo, etc.
Also, some people seem to think "herd immunity" is like a light switch that is turned on once an exact percentage of immune folks is reached (and/or that it is synonymous with total viral irradiation).
The fact is that the real-time R0 will continue to come down as more and more people gain immunity....and currently, we are already under the epidemic threshold.
Further, the current immunity numbers are FAR higher than being reported. Not only is the prevalence of serology tests still lacking, but they are also prone to false negatives.
On top of that, many who were infected but were asymptomatic may not show antibodies at all, but will still maintain T-cell mediated immunity.