Thread: Moderna
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jyl jyl is online now
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Originally Posted by red-beard View Post
And 74 is the median of all age groups, not an age. Either talk of people who are 74 or talk of medians. You are mixing apples and oranges.
Unclear what you're saying.

Anyway, here is the more detailed calculation by age cohort. Appx 2.6MM years of life expectancy lost to Covid in the USA so far.

The largest part of that is from deaths of persons in the 50-64 y/o cohort.



CDC has age data for only 154,405 deaths through 10/14/2020, I calculated for those deaths then scaled up to current total 217,000 deaths. That assumes the deaths of unknown age have the same age distribution as the deaths of known age.

If you want to assume the deaths of unknown age are all in the 85+ y/o cohort (basis?), that reduces the result to 2.2MM years of life expectancy lost.

If you want to assume that everyone who died had 5 yrs less life expectancy than the average (basis?) , that reduces the result to 1.5MM years of life expectancy lost.

EDIT: Also, the table above uses the shorter life expectancy for males, because I didn't have time to find the CDC data for Covid deaths by age and sex. Female life expectancy is significantly longer than male life expectancy in every age cohort. Total Covid deaths so far are 54% male, 46% female. If you want to assume that % split is the same for each cohort, then that increases the result to 2.9MM years of life expectancy lost. I actually think that is a fairly reasonable assumption, and should have included it from the start. Oh well.
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Last edited by jyl; 10-15-2020 at 09:38 AM..
Old 10-15-2020, 09:09 AM
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