[jyl]

So, the hyper speculation on the vaccine trials is getting kind of silly. In the past week, analysts have been saying that Pfizer's failure to disclose any interim data by now is either a good sign, a bad sign, evidence that Pfizer is hiding something, or evidence of nothing at all.

Pfizer today confirmed that its trial has not yet had 32 events (infections in the study), which is required for the first interim analysis. It also stated that while it still thinks it will hit the 32 event mark in "October" (really? who believes this?), it will take 1 week or more to review and disclose any result of the interim analysis. This actually contributed to market weakness today (as bears need not "fear" positive vaccine news for another week or so).

I kind of lean to the "this is evidence of nothing" side. I did read an analysis that argued, more or less persuasively, that the failure to hit 32 events by now implies either that the study subjects are exposing themselves less to the virus than the average person (which seems plausible) or that the vaccine is at least modestly effective (else there'd be 32 events by now) or both. Which, upon reflection, still tells us nothing much.

Moderna's CEO was smart in not making any ambitious predictions about having data fast. Pfizer's CEO was not. Confidence is nice but confidently keeping one's mouth shut is better.