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sammyg2 sammyg2 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2000
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I believe there is a more dangerous and immediate concern:

With the reduced demand of fossil fuels because of gubmint meddling (lock-downs), oil refineries have experienced significantly lower production AND lower margins.
That has resulted in numerous refineries shutting down. I know of 5 on the west coast so far and expect at least three more to die in the next two years.
The ones that are still running are hemorrhaging money (like loosing billions per quarter) and are taking drastic steps to survive. They can't keep those losses up for long and they know it.
There will be more refinery closures and they are all fighting to make the other guy next.

Top level managers, being mostly full of BS, see only one option, CUT COSTS!
So they go after the three easiest things: cutting people, cutting training, and cutting maintenance. IOW panic.
They are already cutting corners to save money and instead of fixing it right, they are band-aiding it and just doing it good enough to get by, to keep it running for one more month.
This will not end well.
Imagine the engine in your car has 350k miles on it and is burning oil like nobody's business, so your mechanic decides to just replace one valve guide and fill it up with STP and call it good.
Now imagine that if it fails, it likely would start a very large and dangerous fire resulting in very toxic fumes for miles.

Quick history lesson, that's how they ran refineries 40 years ago and there were lots of explosions, lots of fatalities, and working in a refinery was one of the top 5 most dangerous jobs in the US. You had to hold your breath while driving by because of the fumes.
But gradually over the years, they got better. More emphasis on long-term reliability and less on short-term cost control.
The results were very good and working in a refinery became one of the safest and cleanest jobs around.

But I see all that progress quickly going down the tube.
I'm afraid they will regress to the point where their own mistakes will result in their downfall.
They are worried about which refinery dies next, and praying that a competitor burns to the ground before they do.

I'm fortunate that I got out in time and am watching the train-wreck from the sidelines. But If I lived near a refinery or down-wind of a refinery, I'd be nervous.
Super serial.
Old 11-02-2020, 10:13 PM
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