Quote:
Originally Posted by speeder
At least since the beginning of this thread. In all fairness, the guy is an options trader, (not former as his avatar says), not an investor. And also to be fair, absolutely no one on earth saw TSLA’s meteoric rise coming. That said, I believed in TSLA way before this thread started and disagreed with any short people on page one, if not mistaken. I knew that Tesla would survive.
There is being wrong and then there is being the most wrong anyone has ever been in the history of investing.  |
To be honest I have had some net short positions from time to time but for the most part have not been short TSLA, and absolutely not just balls out short stock.
The time spread on the 1000 strike I am letting rip. If we blow through the 1000 strike this week I end up exercising the 1000 calls and then I am short the next weeks 1000 calls vs long stock. That's where the risk is, if the stock tanks after that, I am only hedged by the amount of premium left in the 1/22 1000 calls I am short. So if the stock reverses after this week I need to be careful on how and when I close the position. If the stock reverses this week I can sit tight and manage the short 1/22 1000 strike calls. If the stock keeps going through next week I do nothing and I just keep the 3 bucks and change I sold the spreads for.
To be honest, I don't give a **** about the company. The stock is too rich for me to want to own it in a long term account here, and I would never short the thing for anything more than very short periods of time. The iV spread, 1/15 vs. 1/22 was all I was looking at. When the iV curve gets that steep its a good time to sell the time spreads. I have no interest in having any position on past 1/22 at least until after earnings.
My avatar says "former" because I retired from being an institutional trader. However as you pointed out, I have not forgotten the nearly 30 years of knowledge and experience I gained as a trader.
I agree, anyone who says they saw these kinds of moves coming is not being honest. I freely admit I am not aces on fundamental analysis, however I know enough to know that a p/e of over 1700 is not sustainable. Something's got to give. By the same token, I know very well that John Maynard Keynes was correct in that the market (TSLA) can remain irrational longer than I can remain liquid, and for that reason I wont be long or short the stock for anything other than short term plays and only via options.