Quote:
Originally Posted by KC911
Take it to PARF...
Equities have been the only game in town, and juiced by the FrED for years.... on a 11 year bull run. Overvalued might be an understatement...
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Count On America For Chaos
The complexity of the USD monetary system on the global monetary system and economy has so many variables constantly interacting with each other that it is truly unfathomable. It has to be done on a practically daily case by case basis. The Global economy is a continuing process or mechanism with multiple functions that are constantly in motion. Statistical systems as a barometer are only a snapshot in time. Charting past performance only gives you an idea of trajectory. You can think of the Global economy as a living and breathing entity which does have a collective sentiment. The trick is to have clarity about what the pulse of that sentiment is and means at any given time.
From March 2009 until September 2012 Equities could be considered to be in a "snap back mode" from the abyss that was the 2008 crash. The economic SYSTEM had been stabilized through stimulus and FED accommodation and was remaining in flux through the EU Debt crisis (Greece, Italy, Spain etall) in 2010 and the US Tea Party's attempt at fiscal sanity which ended abruptly when Standard & Poors DOWNGRADED the US BOND rating. Since then there has not been a squeak from Congress about fiscal sanity. In 2012 with the RE market CRUMBLING along with the Economy showing signs of morbidity the FED launched QE3 as a LIFE SUPPORT measure. Of course the thinking was that the economy would grow strong enough to stand on it's own two legs again without FED accommodation. From that point in September 2012 on wards Equities have done virtually nothing but rise and will continue for as long as the FED or US Treasury can maintain credibility and or has the ability to provide the liquidity from a policy of Accommodation. In other words the FED stops Accommodating and the economy and Equities DIE.
This was very clear to me the moment that GW Bush came on the TV in October of 2008 proclaiming a "MELT DOWN CRISIS." That this crisis was a GAME CHANGER, a SEA CHANGE end of an era of unprecedented American prosperity. That awareness and the SUBSEQUENT myopic stupidity of epic proportions has done nothing but squander any remaining chance at salvaging the situation. Since March of 2020 and the catalyst of CV which exacerbated an already terminal situation it DOES NOT MATTER ANYMORE. The economy is comatose having barely a pulse left which is completely supported FED provisions of liquidity of 120B a month and US Treasury stimulus of now sending checks directly to Americans as a stop gap measure. There is essentially a QUASI NATIONALIZED ZOMBIE SUBSISTENCE ECONOMY. Yet the thinking remains delusional and the behavior has become psychotic.