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You clowns aren't approaching this from the correct direction. The graphs I posted were from the study I linked. If you read the goddamn thing, it was a relatively small study of people that had the virus, that had the disease and the tests were from different stages in their illnesses. The graph was simply posted to show that there is a steep drop off in the likelihood of finding live virus in tests run more than 24, 25 cycles. By the time you get to 40 cycles, or more, you're dealing with virus fragments that can cause no disease.
Take a look at the first graph. By the time you get to 40 cycles, the probability of live virus being recovered is near zero. For the less than astute observers among you, I should point out that the value of zero on the y axis is above the bottom line of the graph. As stated in the study, the confidence window is fairly large because the number of samples in the study was relatively small (under 200) but note how quickly the confidence window tightens up at high cycle values.
Looking at the second graph, there are no positive cultures for any sample older than about 10 days from the onset of symptoms. None.
The CDC has studied this in the past and they understand it. That's why it made no sense for them to promulgate the idea that 40 cycles was the right number to use. A bunch of people questioned this last year, which gave rise to the study and article I originally read. As more people have figured out that their guidelines were bull****, they have changed them. It wasn't just this aspect of the problem alone; they back-tracked on a number of issues. WHY DID THEY DO THIS?
The question you need to ask is this one:
If you are asymptomatic and take a test, if that test is run through 40 cycles before the fluorescence exceeds background levels, what is the likelihood that you have in your body a sufficient load of live Sars virus to cause the Covid disease? I'm telling you that the answer is essentially none. Zero. I am not interested in a positive test that means that it has found a few dead virus fragments that can't cause any disease. That means nothing.
Don't like my outlook? Go dig a big, deep hole in your backyard and cower in it, until your precious savior Fauci sounds the all-clear alarm.
IDGAF.
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