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Originally Posted by Tervuren
I think he was using the words of someone else that painted a very bleak picture for what would happen in those states.
The projections they made, the many Brazillions of dead and injured, etc....
How does hindsight compare to those predictions that those using that word made.
And secondly, maybe Neanderthals were the smart ones.
So much about Neadnerthals has been revised time and time again.
My mom was a teacher, s I've been able to read multi-decades of materials on the same subject to see how a wrong view point is taught, replaced with another wrong viewpoint, then information came out that made that wrong view piont have to go, and another wrong view point took its place, repeat, repeat....
We know a lot less than we try to seem.
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i mean the projections by experts were largely spot on. had we continued with the lock down, the experts predicted that we'd have about 300k dead, and if we didn't shut anything down, or do anything at all, we'd have about 2 million dead.
by and and large america did some things, and wow, would you look at that, we are gonna end up with around 600k and change dead by the time its done. assuming a variant doesn't keep the whole thing going, which is a possibility. but you know what, the mixed measures we did adopt, probably saved about a million lives, and we probably could have saved another quarter of a million lives staying in hard lock down. thats what the modelers predicted, and thats basically exactly what happened.
the only projections that failed were those by non experts. remember when trump and pence said that covid deaths would go to zero by may 2020? because they knew jack all nothing about what they were doing, fitted a cubic function in MS excel and decided that since that graph went to zero by may, that deaths would certainly go to zero by may 2020?
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/8/21250641/kevin-hassett-cubic-model-smoothing