[jhynesrockmtn]

Originally Posted by Superman

Was this in 2008 or so?

Your point is well-taken, and this is why I am asking. I could get out now, and doing the math. Looking at the expenses that remain if I sell the SFH rental, and the expenses and revenues that would go away, and assuming a 10% increase in the rental property value over the next year, I'd stand to make $30 more by selling a year from now. And I guess what I am asking is what are the odds of a decline in RE values instead of that assumed increase? A decline of 7% would eat that $30K. Or just cause me to keep the property longer than planned. If I did the math right.

But yeah, housing prices in the Seattle area have been exploding for 20 years. I think it took about a year to recover from the 2008 problem. This rental is at the southern end of King County (Seattle), and just .9 miles from the Sounder (commuter train) station. Its value is connected to Seattle. I do not see the Seattle RE market as particularly dangerous.

I think if you look at the data, it took longer for Seattle to recover than a year. I bought a house in West Seattle in late 2010 that I got for below what it would have sold for prior to 2008. I'm not trying to scare you and I wish I would have hung onto that house. Sold it in 2013 to move to Spokane. I'd become debt averse and really should have just doubled down on the mortgages but hindsight is always 20/20. If you can ride out a 3-5 year downturn I'd hang on. If you need to pay off the primary house mortgage to shift into retirement I would sell now.