[MRM]

He will eventually lose all his money, probably sooner rather than later. Currency trading is among the most complex trading classes possible. Even most huge multinational corporations who deal with currency from dozens of countries and have to repatriate it don’t hedge currencies and that’s safer than straight up trading. The people who do it professionally have super computers and have access to raw data the amateur investor can’t hope to replicate. If a guy in his basement running charts on his desktop PC can do it, Warren Buffett’s operation might possibly have a few extra resources that give them an edge. Charts are so intuitively powerful but they’re backward looking. They tell you nothing about the future and treating past trading ranges like a crystal ball into the future is a sure fire recipe for disaster.

He’s guessing, not investing. He’ll be right until he’s wrong. Eventually he’ll guess wrong and get wiped out.