[jyl]

More thoughts.

China has not done the ground work to abandon zero-Covid. While 87% of the population is supposedly vaccinated, that is with domestic Chinese vaccines which are much less efficacious than the vaccines used in the West (even though China’s Fosun Pharma has a license for the Pfizer mRNA vaccine, the Chinese govt has never approved it). The vaccination rate is lower among the older popln; only 50% of over-80s are vaccinated, only 20% have one booster shot. China also has not secured a supply of antivirals (Paxlovid is the only one that remains effective against current variants).

Thus, while Xi should abandon zero-Covid, doing so "right now" will probably result in an enormous epidemic of Covid sweeping the country. Tens or hundreds of millions of cases, overflowing hospitals, dying in homes, makeshift morgues, people isolating out of fear, then the wave of long Covid disability, bankrupt local governments, etc.

Basically Xi will exchange the current chaos and disquiet for another, much larger and wholly uncontrollable, that will make his handling of Covid look multiples worse. I’m not even sure it will help the economy, a raging epidemic being not conducive to consumer spending.

I think the most logical thing for Xi to do is to compel a nationwide campaign of re-vaccination when he has the mRNA vaccines (either domestic or imported) plus nasal boosters (China is well ahead of the US in developing these) while setting up a nationwide network of Covid surge capacity, and then transition from zero-Covid to living-with-Covid, with stringent masking and ventilation rules (living-with-Covid China style is going to look very different than in the US).

If I'm right, an aggressive vaccination campaign will be a sign that zero-Covid is finally going to be dropped.

As divining the practical application of Xi Thought has been a losing game for some time, I think I’ll just remain zero-weight China for now.