Originally Posted by mclovin
tabs has occasionally prognosticated on when meltdowns may occur, but generally stays away from specific timeframes. There’s been a few, though. I don’t recall how accurate they were. I think they were mostly ok.
But mostly tabs describes a general arc of history, and in that regard, he is correct. History has proven that 100% of the time.
There’s been 6 or so world currencies over the past 6 or 7 centuries, the holder of the world currency is always holds the world credit card and is thus the economic superpower. The world can never imagine that the world order will ever change, but it always does, and it always follows the same pattern.
The arc is always the same. The emerging power leads in innovation, productivity, technology, culture, education, financial markets etc.
They over extend, get complacent, lose competitiveness, increasing wealth gaps, etc., while the next power starts to rise.
Finally on the downside the power always incurs large debts, starts printing huge amounts of money, has inflation (a fun early example is rome started watering down its coins with cheap metals), has weak leadership, increasing internal conflicts, loss of world currency status and eventually an upheaval, either by economic conquest, war, civil war or revolution.
A new power (i.e. A new world order) arises to fill the void and a new arc of history begins.
This has been the now predictable pattern for hundreds of years, spain, portugal, france, netherlands, uk, us, etc.
If you lay tabs’ posts over that framework, you’ll see that he knows and learns from history and is correct. When you look at the arc and factors set forth above, what’s gone on in the us the last 70 years or so, and what’s happening now, you see history merely repeating itself. And tabs is prescient and is and will be correct (just on a bit of a longer timeline than most think in).
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