[jyl]

I’d add that making bets on the medium-term (few months to a year or two) is, I think, very different (and easier) than making long-term bets. At least if you’re talking about macro economic stuff.

Like right now, you can say with some confidence what Congress will do in the coming several months. Answer: probably nothing much, other than play chicken with the debt ceiling, assuming no big external event that it has to react to. That inaction, in the face of pressing issues, is part of the insanity. What might Congress do over the next five years? No clue, other than play chicken with the debt ceiling.