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If you go to Yahoo! Finance you can see the poll on the bottom right. I do agree now is a good time to refi. Many thought Summer 2003 was the best anyone would ever see. Now, it's getting close, and with the economy still a little weak, I think you might have a small downside, but is it worth the risk? If you see 2 or 3 positive economic reports, rates WILL jump. Will you be able to lock in before they spike a few points? Worst case, get your paperwork in now, so you can lock in with a phone call.

Treasury bond is still well under 4%. Question is will it get closer to 3% (summer '03)

Here's the text from the non-working link above:
"The difficulty of forecasting future stock prices may be well
known. But forecasting interest rates may not be any easier.
The Wall Street Journal publishes a Semiannual Economic Forecasting Survey of approximately 50 economists, and has done so since at least 1982. In this survey, these economists are asked, twice each year, to predict the future yields six months away on a common benchmark for interest rates (for example, U.S. Treasuries) .

The results? A research firm tabulated that over the 1982-2002 period, the economists, on average, were wrong on each forecast by 84 basis points (0.84%). Put even more directly, the economists (as a group) usually failed to even correctly predict the direction of the change in interest rates over the next six months. In only 12 of 42 forecasts did they correctly figure that interest rates would go up when they in fact did go up subsequently, and down when in fact there was a decline."