I wouldn't fret too much. Kevin Martin at SoCal Weather Force is my go to for weather prediction. He always hits it right on the money with many of the big names (National Weather Service, Weather Channel, etc) copying his predictions . Here's his for this winter....
https://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/2023/09/25/preliminary-el-nino-forecast-for-the-southwestern-united-states-for-the-2023-2024-season-extreme-cold-projected/
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"There is nothing to be learned from the second kick of a mule" - Mark Twain
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