[MBAtarga]

Had read the originator of the 4% rule was revisiting the rule.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/even-inventor-bill-bengen-revisiting-143000007.html

In 1994, rookie financial adviser Bill Bengen was looking for a rule of thumb to give his clients on how much they could safely withdraw from their assets each year. He found that 4% — adjusted based on inflation — was the magic number.

- I haven't pasted the entire article -

Even Bengen himself has been compelled to revisit and update the rule a few times over the course of the last three decades. That’s because his original research only included two asset classes: Treasury bonds and large-cap stocks. Now, with a third class, small-cap stocks, he believes that 4.7% would be a safe withdrawal.

In an appearance on the Bogleheads Live podcast in December, Bengen says he’s adjusted his own withdrawal strategy rate to 4.7%. But he went on to say that with sky-high inflation factored in, an even more conservative approach might be safer.

“My 4% rule was actually based upon a worst-case situation. An investor who retired in October of 1968 who ran into just a terrible, perfect storm of bad stock market results and very high inflation, which forces withdrawals up every year,” he explained.

“Are we in a similar period beginning with this year with very high inflation and potentially low stock market returns? Entering something even worse? I don't know, unfortunately. And we won't know for quite a few years.”

Until then, Bengen believes the situation is serious enough to warrant a more conservative approach for now. “Perhaps investors might consider taking 4.5% at this time when retiring until the smoke clears and we get a sense of where inflation is going,” Bengen said. “Inflation is the big wild card in this environment.”