A few things about large sailboats. Bayesian type vessels are really not comparable to smaller sailing vessels or some even larger ones. Your typical Sunfish, Laser or other dingy can be capsized and righted, its almost fun. Smaller keel boats designed to race or cruise have a companion way centerline and can probably capsize to 90 degrees and right itself fairly unscathed. Even larger sailing vessels can be designed for some extreme conditions. For instance;
https://www.charterworld.com/index.html?sub=yacht-charter&charter=sailing-yacht-meteor-1739
Meteor is about the same length as Bayesian. Fixed keel at just over 14 feet, close to the draft of Bayesian with centerboard up. Meteor is a true sailing vessel. Carbon masts and composite type standing rigging- very light, probably 3 tons or more lighter than Bayesian's mast and rigging. Companion ways and hatches are all center line and can be closed in heavy weather. Meteor was designed to have positive stability to over 120 degrees, compared to Bayesian's max 88 degrees with keel down.
Bayesian is basically a motor yacht that looks like a sailing vessel and can sail. The entire hull of this vessel is jam packed with a small town. Water makers, AC plant, engines and gens, galley to feed guests and crew, 6 staterooms, crew accommodations, tenders garages... basically everything a large motor yacht has. Then they put the tallest aluminum mast in the world on her.
I really don't want to start speculating. But, how high will the Bayesian float in the water when heeled over to 70, 80, and 90 degrees? At what point do the main deck salon doors (the ones that don't stay closed when the vessel heels over) become submerged? How much wind does it take to heel the vessel over to these angles? A few crew statements have leaked out, like, one second we were dealing with cushions and such because of rain and a second later we were in the water. It's obvious the vessel went to a high angle of heel very fast. At what angle do you end up in the water? Did the vessel ever try to recover or just keep going, as in the mast continued towards the water and would more than likely sink faster than the hull could fill with water?
OK, can't help it, going to speculate. This is all speculation. The vessel had zero chance. This was a microburst. When a vessel drags anchor, especially towards deeper water, the anchor will have less and less effect in holding the bow into the wind. The vessel will eventually turn side to the wind. Even if the crew were to get main engines and bow thruster started, a vessel with a mast this size is going to be very difficult to keep the bow into such high winds. So the vessel eventually went side to the wind, no idea how much wind but enough to push her over past the point of no return. This vessel is very heavy and is going to float very low in the water when at 90 degrees plus heel. The big 8 foot wide doors to the interior are well under water. Down flooding is fast. Think of the momentum a mast this heavy and tall is going to have if it is moving fast towards the water, a massive lever. This is not a static test in calm conditions. This is extreme conditions. The naval architects will do these calculations. It's going to be a long trial and I fully expect the massive corporation that owns Perini Navi as well as many other Italian shipyards with government contracts to continue the attack on captain and crew. Italian law is guilty until proven innocent.