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I've got a 2-stage Trane which has a pretty good reputation. Only on the cold days does it every kick into high. Combined gas/electric bills are almost always under $200max despite cracking a window. There is a foot of spray foam insulation in the attic which serves as a nice reflective lid. Would love a heat pump run off solar and battery suppliment.
word of warning: An oversized 1-stage furnace will get expensive quickly. A previous home with plenty of leaky windows was running $500-600 in gas bills.
The old style of Japanese houses doesn't have central heating and paper mache windows. They mostly use small space heaters which can be a fire hazard. Might think about supplementing common rooms(bed/office/den) with additional electric heat, adding insulation even, and lowering the entire house temp.
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Meanwhile other things are still happening.
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