Quote:
Originally Posted by Noah930
There was an article (maybe in Vanity Fair?) a few years ago about this fault line and the subsequent tsunami. IIRC, the risk in your (and your children's lifetimes) was fairly high. As in, it will likely happen in that timeframe, though obviously nothing is 100%.
The article gave a worst case scenario that everything west of I-5 would be leveled. I-5 (as it runs double-decker through Seattle) would likely collapse in locations, much like the Bay Bridge did. The entire area of Cannon Beach (OR) was doomed. No way to evacuate everyone there to higher ground in 15-30 minutes, and there are no tall buildings for escape, either.
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Cannon Bch will be inundated to at least a few blocks inland, in a “small / medium” CSZ rupture (wipe out most of the town’s structures and public services, but a reasonably mobile person has a good chance of getting to safety on foot given 10-15 min warning) or most of the way into the foothills of the coast range, in a “large / XL” rupture (wipes out everything and everyone, pretty much). I’m not worried about the L/XL events as they historically are once per a couple thousand year events, but the S/M events are the every few-to-several hundred year events, and the last one was in the 1700s.
https://pubs.oregon.gov/dogami/tim/Clat09_CannonBeach_Plate1_onscreen.pdf
To find more maps, see index map then the particular map you need
https://www.oregon.gov/dogami/pubs/Pages/tim/p-TIM-overview.aspx#TIMpubs
The effect in Portland will be roughly a magnitude 6+, according to maps I’ve seen. The CSZ can produce magnitude 9 earthquakes at the fault, but that’s some 200 miles and a mountain range away from Portland.