[jyl]

Consensus has $2.0BN revenue in 2030, I came up with a more conservative $1.4BN based solely on MP's production capacity and the DoD price guarantee, I wanted to compare that to market size. You can find US imports of REO, compounds, finished magnets in USGS reports. Since US is retreating from EV production, battery production, wind turbines, etc, I don't know how much US REE consumption will grow in coming years. It has actually declined in last 2 years, per USGS. Assuming it somehow grows +5%/yr going forward, my best guesstimate is that MP magnet production in 2030 could be very roughly similar to, or possibly greater than, total US demand. So to get big upside to consensus estimates, seems either US REE consumption has to grow more than that, or MP has to get substantial export business (since MP's price will be essentially fixed to DoD and likely lower on open market). But MP cannot compete with Chinese REE exports to rest of world, unless the importing countries tariff/restrict Chinese REE. I don't know if Japan and Europe will want to make Chinese REE 2-3X more expensive for their own consumers/industries, just to benefit a US REE company. In fact, if I were them I'd jointly fund their own non-US, non-China REE competitor (say Lynas) because why should they think the US will be a reliable, friendly supplier of REE to them? Maybe we (US) start withholding REE from EU as part of an endless trade/tariff war.

I don't know. Have held MP six months, made 2X, don't think stock is necessarily being driven by skeptical conservative modeling like mine versus breathless bull cases, not so sure valuation matters at all in the short term, but of course my estimates could be totally wrong. So haven't decided what to do, maybe take some profits and move more to LYSDY in non-taxable portfolios I run and look for offsetting losses in taxables. It'll remain a very volatile stock regardless, doubt it goes anywhere in a straight line. I owned MP in 2020-2022 period, have seen it move around a lot though I do think its current drivers are durable.