[jyl]

USGS has data through 2024 on total US imports of rare earth products, which equals total US consumption. (US production of oxide was essentially all exported until this year.) You can look up what REE products are used for and think about whether/how much US consumption will grow. That gives a sense of the total US market for REE. Compare to expected supply from MP and estimate how much unmet market need there may be left for new entrants. Then estimate global market for REE products, excluding Chinese domestic market, and will Japan, Europe, India etc source REE products from China or from a Western REE company? If you think there is a big opportunity, consider if you want to own a REE miner or a REE refiner/maker of end product.

REE is a tiny market - I think US imports are only a couple hundred million dollars per year? (Check that, From memory.) It happens to be the tiny but vital nail for the want of which the kingdom could be lost. That doesn’t mean there is necessarily a big market for those nails.

By the way, US companies’ shortage of REE is their own fault. They easily could have stockpiled five years’ worth. Japanese companies did. The US companies were too stupid and too greedy, they’d rather buyback a few more shares and boost executive compensation.