Quote:
Originally posted by SoCal911SC
Hmm, a tie so far.
Pretty close to what the national polls are showing.
I think 2 things indicators are most useful in predicting:
1) the economy is No. 1. Or, more accurately, the public's view of the economy.
2) the approval rating numbers.
It seems to me that most people believe the economy is improving. I think that this factor is a positive for Bush. I don't think there will be a lot of change in this factor and it will remain a moderate postive for Bush in November.
For the second factor, his approval ratings are low. This of course is related largely to Iraq. This factor can change dramatically by November. Iraqi elections, the ability to secure the country more, the WMD issues, Saddam, OBL, etc. are all up in the air. My guess is that on the whole, these are not going to get a lot better for Bush and will remain a large negative.
Of course, certain events can dramatically change that. Capturing OBL would help him. Ironically, the terrorist groups that seek to oust him can almost ensure his re-election by striking in the US before the election.
The incumbent has a huge advantage, but Bush has some major vulnerabilities. The Dems could have had a much better shot at this election if they selected a more moderate, likeable candidate without all of the baggage Kerry lugs around. I guess the Dem's addiction to Northeastern liberals is a tough one to break! Even after seeing how well a more "moderate" Southerner can do (i.e. Bill Clinton) in an election.
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Damn, Brian that is some of the best analysis I've read so far. You ought to be on the Sunday morning talk shows.
I agree, people will vote with their wallet and the economy is trending upward. The Dems big problem is Kerry. He really can't help himself because of who he is. It started back when he blasted that secret service agent for tripping him (he fell six more times that day I read). There really is two Americas - the one Kerry lives in with his high dollar wife and six mansions, and the one the rest of us live in.
It's ironic because W really is a son of privilege, but Kerry took that vulnerability away by having married money - Republican money at that! I also agree that the Dems could have had an easy time of it, but they are dominated by their left. Now they're in a dog fight and their dog is a poodle.
Craig