Well, I researched this hypothesis on the web today. From what I could tell, there seems to be an even distribution of activations among the states. Here is one of the places I looked:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_orbat.htm
Two good thing about what I think I have found:
1. The military is deploying troops that are the ones they want, vs. the ones they are told they can have due to some political agenda. This is nice to see - I wish our troops success, and they best know how to accomplish the given mission (I hope).
2. The "battleground states" now have more of an swing potential. I personally hate the term "swing voter", but it may apply here.
People vote a certain way to further their own self interest, IMO. In this case, bringing loved ones, and even valued employees home sooner could provide the motivation (self interest) to create swing voters in these states. We will see how it pans out, and how each of the candidates pitches to the voters in these areas.
Anyway you slice it, there are a number of dimensions to this election that will certainly make it interesting.