Quote:
Originally posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts
It is my estimation that property values will go down about 30-60% over the next five years as credit is tightened, and the buyer pool dries up.
Just think of all those people who were happy to invest in the Nasdaq when it was at 5000 (it's under 2000 today, a 60% drop). I believe that CA real estate will perform similarly.
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I'll have to disagree on your higher end 60% value decline estimation. CA real estate in no way resembles investing in an "unknown" commodity (dot.com bust). It's obvious the market is slowing down (in some areas) and with pending rate hikes the trend will continue. We all saw that coming. I have a few friends in the realty circle who see a gradual 15%-20% drop in values. Short of a natural disaster or radical terroist act I think the 60% figure is pretty doomsday thinking. I'd rather be in CA during a realty slump than anywhere else.