motion, if real estate is so predictable, why are you asking us if you should sell?
I feel buying a home as an investment is a poor strategy. A home is a home. It does not generate income. It is a liability, but a liability we must all accept (need for shelter).
I agree with Wayne regarding mob mentality. If one friend warns of a market decline, you chalk it up to his bad batch o homebrew bier, but if a dozen friends express concern, you start to notice. It doesn't matter what the indicators say. Once the players have changed their minds, it's over. I live several thousand miles away, and even I'm starting to second guess myself. I'm rethinking some future investments, despite the fact I live in an area with no irrational exuberance (maybe 20% appreciation in the last 5 years). Despite all this hooplah, guys in CA need not worry unless you need to sell. Your gains and losses are all on paper. You don't capitalize or lose until you sell.
Moses, I think any historical charts will give you very little insight into future performance (which I believe reinforces the point behind your question). I am of the camp that believes the best time to buy real estate is any time in the past, within reason, of course.
BTW, motion, I think you have a great plan. Run with it.
jurgen