[JavaBrewer]

I don't know what the actual sale prices were. All 3 homes sold in the same week and are currently in escrow. Two were agressively priced (high end) and the remaining was attractively priced though I heard had zero upgrades and even for a newer home did not show well. The highest priced had a value range where the bottom range value is what that same floorplan was getting 4-5 months ago.

A recent housing report states -

"The consensus in the industry is that we're in for a soft landing - and the affordability issue will remain top concern of public agencies charged with balancing a need for lower housing costs against the concerns of vocal constituents fearful of increased density, deteriorating quality of life and declining propery values. A decade ago, the real estate bubble did burst, and property values dipped 10 percent or more. But the economy was suffering, and people were leaving the region. Today, the San Diego area has one of the strongest economies of the nation, with higher-than-expected job growth and low unemployment, which is driving the housing market. "We'll see a cooling off, but no major decline is coming - not as long as San Diego and Southern California continue to inadequately produce housing that keeps pace with prosperity and population growth." The San Diego Association of Governments (FWTW) says 314K new homes are needed by 2030 to accomodate the 800K additional people expected to be living in the area. Most of the growth is expected sooner rather than later.

My take on this, the minute interest rates go North of ~ 7% we're going to see a big cooling off - nation wide. What is going to compound that problem are the folks who have no forsight and are in a home by the skin of their teeth on interest only/ARM loans. A bit hit to the job market or economy could force these folks out and cause a decline in values as they default or sell for less than they owe. The flip side to that coin is that a lot of people buying homes here are folks "upgrading" their current living conditions by rolling their new found equity into a nicer home. Many, many folks I know have traded their $200K mortgage for a $300K mortgage and put $300K- $400K down on a bigger/newer/nicer/location (pick) type home. Obviously these folks are not as threatened about a 10% or 20% decline in value. It's all a crap shoot if you're a prospector. The only expectation I have is that when I hit 70+ years old (if I survive that long) the house will be long paid off (15-20 year plan) and worth well North of what I paid for it a 16 months ago.