View Single Post
jyl jyl is online now
Registered
 
jyl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Nor California & Pac NW
Posts: 24,867
Garage
Quote:
put more money in the hands of the consumer and more of it moves about and more tax revenue is collected
That is so-called "supply-side economics". The evidence that it works is virtually non-existent.

Take the Reagan example - since he was the first President to rely on supply-side economics, might as well start there.

Reagan pushed through a large tax cut in 1981, at the beginning of his Presidency. Federal revenues were flat during 1981, 1982 and 1983.

During those years of flat revenue, Federal spending rose. The budget deficit grew. The deficit was $79BN in 1981, reflecting the last Carter budget. After Reagan's budget took effect, the deficit was $128BN in 1982, and $207BN in 1983.

In 1982, Reagan reversed course and increased taxes, partially rolling back the 1981 corporate and individual tax cuts (by about a third). In 1983 Reagan increased taxes again, this time increasing the Social Security payroll tax.

After the tax increases, Federal revenues began to rise, starting in 1984. But Federal spending also continued to rise. The budget deficit continued to rise. The deficit was $185BN in 1984, $212BN in 1985, $221BN in 1986. This was despite the help of the economy, which by roughly 1983 had recovered from the start-of-the-decade recession.

In 1986, Reagan raised taxes on corporations and long-term capital gains. In 1987, after the stock market crash, Reagan raised taxes again.

After 4 tax increases, Federal revenue finally began to rise faster than Federal spending. The budget deficit was $150BN in 1987, $156BN in 1988, $153BN in 1989.

It is, therefore, inaccurate to say that Reagan shows that tax cuts eliminate a budget deficit. His tax cuts froze Federal revenues; they did not increase Federal revenues. The budget deficit did not decline; the deficit soared 150% in two years. It wasn't until Reagan admitted his error and started raising taxes that Federal revenues began to rise and the budget deficit stopped soaring. It wasn't until Reagan had raised taxes in four years that the budget deficit started falling. Even so, when Reagan left office he left a greatly increased Federal debt, and an annual budget deficit almost 100% higher than when he arrived. The people who advocate supply-side economics forget these inconvenient facts.

By the way, you notice it is also inaccurate to say that Reagan was a tax-cutter. He cut taxes in 1981 and raised them in 1982, 1983, 1987 and 1987. That inconvenient fact gets ignored a lot.

Here are the numbers. In billions of dollars. Source: Cato Institute chart.

year revenue spend deficit
1981 599 678 79
1982 618 746 128
1983 601 808 207
1984 667 852 185
1985 734 946 212
1986 769 990 221
1987 854 1004 150
1988 909 1065 156
1989 991 1144 153

(edited for clarity)
__________________
1989 3.2 Carrera coupe; 1988 Westy Vanagon, Zetec; 1986 E28 M30; 1994 W124; 2004 S211
What? Uh . . . “he” and “him”?

Last edited by jyl; 10-09-2004 at 03:27 PM..
Old 10-09-2004, 02:47 PM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #9 (permalink)