[jyl]

Don't know why they haven't called Florida (27 electoral votes) for Bush already. Seems obvious, unless uncounted absentee ballots are a large factor.

Ohio (20 electoral votes) genuinely looks too close to call. Based on precincts reporting so far, Bush is ahead. But most of the precincts that have reported so far are from small counties. The three largest counties by far (I assume these are the most urban ones, but I don't know) are leaning Kerry, so far: Cuyahoga (17% reported, 60% Kerry 40% Bush), Franklin (68% reported, 51% Kerry 49% Bush), and Hamilton (9% reported, 51% Kerry 49% Bush). The next two largest counties (Montgomery and Summit) are also leaning Kerry, so far.

Looks like Kerry and Bush are splitting the other Great Lakes states - Wisconsin Michigan (leaning Bush, but <20% reported: 27 electoral votes) Iowa and Minnesota (leaning Kerry, but <20% reported: 17 votes), Indiana (called for Bush, 11 votes) and Illinois (called for Kerry, 21 votes). So this group of state might well end up 38 votes for Bush, 38 for Kerry.

Assume Montana (3 votes), Colorado (9 votes), New Mexico (5 votes), Nevada (5 votes), Idaho (4 votes) and Alaska (3 votes) all go to Bush, while New Hampshire (4 votes), California (55 votes), Oregon (7 votes), Washington (11 votes) and Hawaii (4 votes) go to Kerry.

That would make Bush 286 and Kerry 231, before Ohio is counted.

So, my math is:

To win, Kerry must win Ohio and carry all the other states that are currently leaning to him, as well as OR and WA, and a couple of states currently leaning to Bush.

To win, Bush must either win Ohio, or simply carry the states that are already leaning to him.

EDIT: I think this is right - I hunted up a calculator . . .