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jyl jyl is online now
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Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Nor California & Pac NW
Posts: 24,866
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Gasoline may have been $1.88 in 2004, but the latest average gasoline price is $2.22 (see http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/ ), which is getting closer to the $2.87 (in 2004 dollars) of 1980.

I think just as important as the price of a commodity is the rate at which the price changes. So if gasoline goes up $1/gal over 5 years, that is less of an economic shock than if it goes there in 2 years.

Anyway, ceertainly current oil prices are not as much of an economic negative as the oil prices of the late 70s/1980. They're not as high (inflation-adjusted) and we use less oil per dollar of production than we did 25 years ago.

But oil is still very important. If you compare a long-term chart of GDP with a chart of oil prices, long-term meaning over the past 40 years, it is pretty remarkable - every time oil prices rise sharply and by a lot, the US economy either goes into a full-blown recession or a growth recession (growth slowdown). This relationship is well-tested - economic models almost all use oil prices as a major input.

Let's hope the speculators get blown up soon.
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1989 3.2 Carrera coupe; 1988 Westy Vanagon, Zetec; 1986 E28 M30; 1994 W124; 2004 S211
What? Uh . . . “he” and “him”?
Old 04-21-2005, 09:29 PM
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