Quote:
Originally posted by lendaddy
That website says the blackouts start in 2012.
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Damn, where did I put that flash light???
The real problem is: Nobody knows for sure when this will happen. Any claims to the contrary are pure BS. Without new major discoveries, peak oil is real, but nobody (except OPEC) knows when it will happen or if it already has. The Saudi's and OPEC have not released real production figures or real proven reserve data for 20+ years.
We will have to shift from a petro economy to some new source over the coming decades, but there is no reason it can't be done in a graceful manner. In a well behaved market, (big caveat), as supply is outstripped by demand, the cost of energy should increase in response. Should It double or triple in a few months? No. This year's increases were driven completely by speculators and hedge funds trading on the NYMEX. The price of oil and its distillates should be a small percentage higher now than they were last year. Remember, China didn't just pop into existence. Their energy demand is increasing 5-7% per year and their actual consumption is much lower than ours. 6.63M barrels per day vs. 20M barrels per day US (2004 data). Winter weather in the US has a greater effect on worldwide consumption than China in the short term.
China and India will certainly make the problem of peak oil worse, but it should still happen in a graceful way. The world market will provide forces needed to move us to new technology.
I'm finishing the book "Twilight in the Desert" right now. It's a boring read, but provides insight into the world's oil supply.