[djmcmath]

Two obvious items come to mind to add uncertainty to this one, even for intelligence analysts with huge collections of available data:

Issue #1: He looks like a lot of other guys. It isn't like he has a unique face that anyone would recognize "comin' through the rye." If we accidentally bumped him off, we might not even notice. If we had him in captivity and he gave the wrong name, we would very likely fall for it.

Issue #2: If he were to die by some accident (whether Coalition Forces intentions or not), his followers would (potentially) do everything in their power to cover it up. Losing your leader is very bad for morale, and most folks probably don't see him around too much anyway. (Alternately, if the circumstances were glorious, his death would be hailed as that of a martyr, in which case we'd know about it immediately.)