>If a person in So Cal had sold his house when the bubble warnings had first started circulating, he would have missed out on at least 30% appreciation on his house, maybe as high as double that (my esitmate).
Yep...Wayne sold his condo about 1.5 years ago and lost out on about 30% appreciation by my guesstimate. A little bitter, Wayne?
But he's right that we're in a bubble...it's just lasted longer than anyone ever imagined because of the weird financing. It's simply a matter of supply and demand. As long as there is buildable land (and there is still plenty in SoCal), the builders will build until supply meets demand. At that point, prices will settle out until people can afford them. NY or San Francisco are exceptions because they have no buildable land.
>Does any one really know someone who bought some real estate as a speculative venture?
Yeah...do a search for "Motion". He drives a Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale. 'nuff said.