[speeder]

I think that there is no question that demand for oil products, (at least gasoline), will decrease slightly in the US as a result of current prices. And that consumers will mostly dump large, inefficient vehicles in favor of higher MPG ones. I know that I am making a conscious effort to use less because I can't stand to see so much of my household budget go to fuel and by extension to oil companies and countries that I don't like. I cannot believe that the great majority of consumers is not doing the same, whether they are green types who already were not wasting a lot or suburban people w/ speedboats, ATVs and large trucks.

In places like Europe where they were not wasting a lot of gasol ine to start with there is less room for a reduction in demand, but in the US it could be significant and we are the world's biggest consumers of oil. Also, I believe that the change in vehicle type will be permanent for most of the population, even if prices drop a little. We have had a situation due to artificially cheap pump prices and clever marketing by the auto industry where ~half of the population of the US and parts of Canada were driving huge tanks for normal, everyday transportation. It was really an unprecedented era of wastefulness, even in the '50s and '60s when gas was cheap and plentiful it did not compare. It was the equivalent of 1/2 of all households driving a new Cadillac Fleetwood because "I like sitting high/the feel of safety/etc.. And that half would include nearly all of the people living a suburban lifestyle that means lots of miles driven daily and zero public transportation.

The middle class, (what's left of it), has been largely moved out to the exurbs in the great "build-out" of American cities and they will be buying cars that get a minimum of double the MPG of large SUVs, plus driving less. Oil demand will fall in the short term, long term demand is up to whether we have politicians smart enough to look out for our long-term interests and have a cogent energy policy that reduces the need for imported oil.