[turbo6bar]

If you compare appreciation rates to equities, you can't ignore the influence of leverage.

The .75% increase in 30 yr rates over the past 12 months equates to an 8% increase in monthly payments. So, for 2006, I predict a 3-5% fall in nationwide housing prices. A year-over-year decline in nationwide prices is unprecedented, but all signs are negative at this point.

The presage is rising inventory levels, huge incentives by national home builders, and accelerating default levels.