Quote:
Originally posted by jyl
jurgen, how is HGX constructed? seems shld look worse given indiv homebuilder charts.
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Components of Philadelphia Housing Sector:
http://www.phlx.com/products/sectors/hgxcomp.htm
This index has less concentration in pure homebuilders. It includes material suppliers. Of the 20 components, only 14 are homebuilders, In XHB, 17 of the 21 holdings are homebuilders.
http://advisors.ssga.com/etf/fund/etf_detail_XHB.jsp
Quote:
Originally posted by jyl
Today the 30 mortgage is under 7%. In 30 years its never been lower than 5.3% (in 2003), which isn't that much different from current. If/when a house price decline starts, the Fed doesn't have that much interest rate "ammunition" left to stabilize house price.
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Also, in 1990, foreign countries did not hold much US debt. Today, they do, and the strength of the US dollar is very important. If Bernanke does not show resolve in maintaining inflation and protecting the dollar, foreign countries will shun our debt. In the More Bad RE News thread, a few months ago I mentioned the possibility of foreign interest in treasury bonds waning. At that time, the 10 yr treasury bond was around 4.3-4.4%. Today, it blasted up another 7 basis points to 5.20% and is showing no signs of retreating. According to Russ @
http://www.xanga.com/russwinter under his May 05, 2006 comments,"
FCBs haven't added a dime to their Treasury holdings since February 23rd."
Quote:
Originally posted by GDSOB
Looks like we missed the party.
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Might have missed the party, but I don't think we'll avoid the hangover. States like Georgia, Ohio, Tennessee, and Colorado lead the nation in foreclosure rates. We drank club soda, but still need two Tylenol and a cold shower in the morning.
Today, Mortgage Servicing News stated Massachusetts' foreclosure level is the highest in 10 years. We haven't even hit rock bottom yet, and foreclosures are already reaching highs???