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nine_one_4 nine_one_4 is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 317
This thread has taken an interesting turn to include creationism and evolution. Personally, I think some knowledge of the basics of probability would only work against evolution. Let me dig up one of my old posts and maybe someone can point out my fallacious reasoning.


If the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads is 1/2, then the probability of flipping the coin twice in a row and getting heads both times is (1/2)^2 = 1/4 and the probability off getting heads three times in a row is (1/2)^3 = 1/8 and so on. Similarly, if after the first living organism sprang into life the probability of it surviving each mutation was 99/100, then the probability of it surviving the first 1000 mutations would be (99/100)^1000 = 0.000043171.

In other words, the idea that an organism would spontaneously spring to life and survive the first 1000 mutations without any help is very unlikely.
Old 06-20-2006, 01:26 PM
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