[1967 R50/2]

I think you pretty much nailed it for yourself. It's speculation and fear of disruption of FUTURE supply...not current supply. Just like the price of a stock represents speculation on the value of the FUTURE dividend streams or capital appreciation.

Other than that I will add:

1. Opec is a cartel, yes...but not a very effective one. DeBeers. Now THAT is a cartel. They take crappy little rocks, which are way more common than other gems like rubies, emeralds, etc, but by controlling the supply and cleverly marketing the product, create price demand which is over the top. Even at their worst, OPEC has never been able to exercise this level of control. There are too many sources outside the cartel...like Russia, Mexico, Canada, the UK (north sea) and the US.

2. There is no conspiracy to create high oil prices. If that were the case, Hugo Chavez, Nigerian rebels, BP, Iran, Al Qaeda, Vladimir Putin, Exxon, Detroit and every American consumer would have to be in on it. As much as we'd like to think that's the case, it is impossible.

If we don't like high oil prices, the solution is the same as it ever was: Sell the Porsche or SUV and buy a Prius or other fuel efficient car.