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jyl jyl is online now
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Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Nor California & Pac NW
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Israel will not attack Lebanon unless it is itself attacked by Hezbollah from Lebanon. So, how can Hezbollah's attacks on Israel be stopped?

1. Hezbollah could be militarily crippled, and prevented from rebuilding. This cannot be done from the air. It requires a ground war, and then an effective occupation force, which could be Israeli, international, Lebanese, or some combination.

2. Hezbollah could be denied the weapons necessary to attack (rockets) or defend (anti-tank weapons, etc). They primarily get these weapons from Syria and Iran. Weapons imports could be blocked or reduced. Syria nor Iran could be influenced by international demands. Israel or the US could take direct (military) action against Syria and Iran.

3. Hezbollah could be deprived of the motivation to attack. This is complicated and I don't fully understand it - I believe they are motivated to attack Israel partly by Syrian and Iranian instructions, partly because it gains them popular/political support in Lebanon, and partly for their own ideological reasons.

4. Hezbollah could be deprived of its popular support and thus its ability to hide in Southern Lebanon. Again, this is complicated since to the locals, Hezbollah provides social services and other desired things, in addition to doing the popular thing of attacking Israel.

And

5. The other option is to persuade the Israelis to tolerate rocket attacks and raids across the border. To some degree, they have tolerated some level of this, without taking a great deal of action, in the past.

Anyway, I would think along these lines. If none of them lead to an answer, then I would say there is no solution and a war will go on at the Israel/Lebanon border for a long time, occasionally interrupted by temporary ceasefires and peacekeeping efforts.
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Old 08-10-2006, 09:38 PM
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