[Porsche-O-Phile]

This one's a dud.

For the record, look at Wilma from last year - it went from a tropical storm to a very dangerous Cat 4 in about 24 hours. Crazy-fast intensification. Yes, it can happen. That was pretty unusual though - conditions were absolutely ideal - no shear, warm sea surface temps, etc.

The conditions for this storm are far less favorable, so intensification is less likely. There's some good discussion on intensity forecasting on NOAA's web page. Yes, it's still an inexact science and weird things can still happen, but it'd be EXTREMELY unlikely for Ernie to have amounted to much. The hype was typical media sensationalism.

Although caution is good, the outcome here is painfully predictable - people will cry "wolf" every time there's a comma-shaped pattern of clouds over the Carribbean for the next year or two, then people's dull memories will fade and we'll be right back where we were with Katrina, "oh, it's only forecast to be a Cat 2. . . I think we'll stay here. It won't be that bad". That mentality.

10-15 years from now another big one will hit a populated area and you'll have grandstanding politicians pointing fingers at one another and sensationalist journalists asking "how did this happen?". . . at least until the next big story comes along. Then the cycle will repeat.

People are stupid. They simply don't learn from their past. What's that line about "those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it"? It'll apply to major property damage and loss of life in an urban area from a hurricane. Mark my words.