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Once U have a Nuke in your hands, U realize the awesome responsibility you have on your hands. NO country since the US dropped two on Japan has seen fit to use it. Call it deterence, or moral responsibilty.

Once that threshold is broken, all he11 will break lose. If a Nation State uses a Nuclear weapon it will more than likely be retaliated against in kind. Pakistan vs India, China vs India, N Korea against ANYBODY, Iran angainst ANYBODY.

The big problem for the lesser Nuclear powers like N Korea, Pakistan, China, India is the DELIVERY SYSTEM. The US because of its Geographical Postion and the lack of sophisticated means by its potential oponents is mostly out of range. The greatest threat the USA faces is from a small bomb sneaked in and set off by Terrorists.

To expand if a Nation State like Iran gets a Nuclear Bomb will they GIVE it to a Terrorist Organization. Or will a Terrorist Organization get hold of one on its own? Then there would be NO Way of Retaliating. The only recourse is for the USA to retaliate against the Nation State where the materials came from.

I think the most likely scenerio will be one ME country using it on another ME country. Or a Terrorist attack on the US. One further thing about assembling a Bomb, it takes infrastructure a Nation State can provide. If a Terrorist organization does not have that prerequiste it would be tough for them to come up with a bomb. on their own.