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Myth: Red-Blue States
In response to some of our more "impassioned" posters here, I offer the following article and references:
"Beginning in the 2000 presidential election, the broadcast networks began showing Republican-won states in red and Democratic-won states in blue. Soon pundits were talking about the red states and the blue states as if they were two different countries, one dominated by evangilists, and the other by secularists. The nation, some claimed, was engaged in a culture war.
The 2004 presidential election map followed much the same pattern, reinforcing the notion. But the split is not an intrinsic feature of U.S. politics. (map shows 12 states in white, in which the winning margin was 5% or less) These 12 states counted for 25% of the electoral vote, showing that the election geography could change substantially with a relatively small shift in votes.
Survey data show that the two sides are closer together than usually thought. On some economic issues, Americans agree. For example, almost two-thirds in red and blue states think that corporations have too much power. Furthermore, in both sections a substantial majority want to protect the environment. On "gut " issues, the red and blue are not that far apart either, with survey differences running up to 12% on gun control, school vouchers, homosexual adoption and the death penalty. On the most contentious issue-abortion- about 20% believe it should be legal under all circumstances,and about 20% believe it should be illegal under all circumstances. For the rest, abortion may be important, but it apparently does not rise to the level of a fighting issue.
Harvard University economists Edward L. Glasier and Bryce A. Ward have extensively analyzed the historical data on cultural and voting differences. They find little evidence that the red states are becoming more Republican or the blue states more Democratic, and they have determined that the two parties are no more spatially segregated now than in the past. They see no signs of a culture war, noting that most people are in the middle on most issues. They do note, however, that the U.S. is in a strongly partisan period because of opposition to President George W. Bush and that the alliance of the Republican party with evangicals is fairly new. That alliance, however, is not necessarily a sign of increased divisiveness, considering that religious groups historically can swing from one party to another-evangicals used to be more closely allied with Democrats.
As Glaiser and Ward note, the U.S. is remarkable for the geographic diversity of habits and beliefs. Those, for example, who believe in the Rapture do not live exclusively in Kansas: they live all over.About 45% of voters in red states are more liberal on economic issues than the typical blue state voter, whereas 40% of blue dtaters are more conservative on cultural issues than the typical red stater."
November Scientific American article
further reading:
Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America; Morris P. Florina
Myths and Realities of America Political Geography: Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol 20 No 2 Spring 2006
Purple America: Journal of Economic Perspectives; same issue
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Bob S. former owner of a 1984 silver 944
Last edited by Moneyguy1; 10-14-2006 at 11:03 PM..
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