[sammyg2]

Oil companies are run by people who have to return a profit to the shareholders or they will soon be out of a job. Shareholders normally expect around a 10% profit or better.
Unfortunately, oil companies usually don't return that kind of profit, not even close. XOM hit that mark for part of last year but it is not sustainable.
On average over the past 10 years the ROI of an oil company is around 1 to 3%. You can do better in T-bills. That's partly why they are called grandmother stocks, stable, predictable, small return but small risk. Just what an old grandmother needs.
The oil company executives would love to get 10 or 15% ROI, but it just doesn't happen.
I pulled that $10 per gallon number out of my butt, it is figurative and suggests that the oil companies believe their product is grossly underpriced based on the cost vs. profit.
basically I was saying that they want the price to go much higher than it is or has been. If they had control of the price it would go much higher. Maybe not as high as $10, but who knows? We'll never find out.

Over the past two years lots of things changed as speculators jumped on the bandwagon. the more the price went up, the more that jumped into the sector.
Eventually it hit a peak due to higher than expected inventories, mild weather, and record refining production.
The speculators realized it had peaked and they started getting out. As they did the price dropped. The more it dropped the more they sold.
Eventually the opportunistic were weeded out and only the hardened oil speculators were left, the market will soon find stability again to a certain extent. That's basically where we are today.
Next spring the price of gas will go up to at least $2.60 IMO, and it may get as low as $2 this winter.
I expect it to follow that pattern for the next several years barring any unusual outside influences.
I would love to see the price go higher, $4 a gallon would make me very happy if I saw it coming soon enough to get back in this sector. Unfortunately I don't have any more influence on that price than others, including Bush.