Quote:
Originally posted by milt
Cute, dude. Let me put things in perspective for you big picture thinkers. Milgard Manufacturing (windows) is the largest by far in all of the Western states. Their orders were down 20% BEFORE the housing slowdown. They are currently keeping the latest figures close to the vest. Custom windows went from out 2 weeks down to 7 working days just in this last 6 mo period.
Milgard is one division of Masco, a huge conglomerate. Most of the divisions focus on home improvement sectors. Even by 2004, some divisions weren’t meeting expectations. The figures for 06 aren't out where I can see them. I'll let one of our financial guys sniff this one out.
All I can tell you is that the economy can be gauged every time by the shoe salesperson. When people stop spending, it reflects right away in the shoe dept. You can always wear shoes longer, but you won't take a cold shower. Hence, the plumber has work, the shoe guy none. Especially if the water heater is out.
I'm closer to the shoe guy than the plumber by way of having my income come from homeowners discretionary income. When that slows, it snow balls beyond and we're hard into that phase.
Now, Mr. Cow, let us hear your analysis. I did my best to back up my statement that the economy is slow. If you happen to be educated in these matters, all the better, because you can make an informative statement rather than dismiss a grassroots approach. If not, put a sock in it.
I happen to believe in the Bob Dylan adage," You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."
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As I said originally, no offense was intended, and you seem to have made up your mind. You also seem to be somewhat grouchy and I won't bother trying to pull you out of your perceived state.
I hold the more traditional view that macro indicators show the true state of the economy. Not a single data point in SoCal. The "grassroots" perspective, as you put it, is not a valid statistical way of judging the economy. Sorry. Saying the shoe saleman sees the whole economy is like saying one troop deployed to Germany sees the whole state of the war in the middle east. You see what you see, but you're sure not seeing everything.
Take a look at some of the national indicators.
Unemployment is at 4.2%.
College-educated workers have a 2% unemployment level!
Record high Dow.
High consumer spending.
Low interest rates. High availablilty of capital.
Sorry the window thing isn't working out for you.