[Moneyguy1]

Grocery delivery a new phenom? Really, talk to the old folks who remember the 40s. It was quite common, as was lawn care......A lot of kids back then made money by doing mowing, weeding and in the winter shoveling. Now "lawn care" is an "industry".

Where are the consumer electronics manufacturers? When was the last time you saw a Zenith or an RCA that had a "made in America" sticker?

The upstate New York area, home to former powerhouses like Kodak, Xerox, Rochester Products, Delco, Stromberg-Carlson, Phaudlers, American Laundry and Machine, Graflex, and others too numerous to mention, and the ancillary companies that supplied machine parts, advertising and other support services are either gone or dramatically downsized. I was involved in the financial scene in the area from Buffalo to Albany. The entire upstate area is struggling, and the cities have "downsized", losing population left and right. Real estate values in certain areas have plummited. A three bedroom home in the close in suburbs on a decent sized lot can be had for under 100k.

If there is growth in recent years, it is based on dramatic losses in the years preceeding. Getting back 3.5% per year after years of losing 10%+ is not a gain, it is still a case of losing ground over time.

As for the growth in "services", how long before this part of the overall pie is saturated and stops growing? Any economy can afford only so much non-producing drain. One cannot ignore the reduction of manufacturing as a part of the whole pie without some degree of trepidation.

We can paint all the rosy scenarios we want, but there are a number of product areas that have suffered greatly and may never recover. We may, as a nation, weather this change in fundamental operation, but we will be a far different nation because of it: less independent, more beholding to outside sources for necessary goods, and with an ever greater divide between the extremes of wealth. Whether this is good or bad is for the future to decide.